England’s Huge Autumn and Winter!
England are now over in Sri Lanka ahead of their test series and, despite the news of Moeen Ali testing positive for Covid, it is looking likely we will be watching the boys in red ball action again very soon. But everyone’s focus is still on two huge events at the back end of the year... the T20 World Cup and the Ashes.
The World Cup gives Eoin Morgan and the white ball squad the chance to hold both World Cups simultaneously; whilst the Ashes is Root and the red ball team’s chance to pull off a meteoric rise and famous victory after only drawing the home series in 2019. But there is likely to be two very different sides walking out to field at both events, at two very different stages of their story.
Looking ahead at the T20 World Cup, this team is over 4 years in the making and is considered by many as the best white ball team in the world. The majority of the team starred in the 2019 ODI World Cup win and the next stage in their story and Morgan’s as captain is to win the T20 World Cup. There is likely to be some changes from the ODI WC, with Plunkett definitely out and both of Root and Woakes likely to not be a part of the team. Moeen is still involved, but with his form it remains to be seen whether he makes the World Cup next autumn.
We would predict that the team to start the first game of the WC will be:
Buttler
Roy
Malan
Bairstow
Stokes
Morgan
Sam Curran (were expecting Moeen to struggle again this year sadly)
Jordan
Tom Curran
Archer
Rashid
That team looks very strong to us, but there is two key changes we would be making right now if we were the captain. Firstly, and less controversial, is we would include Mark Wood instead of Tom Curran who we think has struggled for a while now. The extra pace and variation that Wood offers is key for us; although we wish he was able to spend more time playing T20 honing his skills, but injury history stops this.
The second change we would make is the controversial one. We love Jason Roy, he was key to winning the ODI WC, and we hope he regains his form in the BBL and then goes onto the IPL and is successful. However, unless he produces fantastic numbers, we think England’s best chance of winning the T20 WC is by including one of their best batsmen and that is Alex Hales. He has been sublime yet again in the Big Bash and is natural match winner, who is proven to be a consistently destructive opener who puts you in control. We understand he has had discipline issues involving drugs in the past, and we understand the punishment of missing the ODI WC. The time has now come though for him to be given another chance and help England to one of their greatest achievements. We almost failed in the ODI World Cup, when Roy was injured, and we were crying out for him; and the T20 team is crying out for him now for us.
We know Hales is very, very unlikely to feature, and although we are sure England would be victorious at the WC with him, they still have a great chance without him and should go into the tournament as joint favourites, alongside hosts India. Let’s hope that England have enough in their squad to win and reach their ultimate white ball goal.
Following the World Cup, everything will turn to the red ball game and the all important Ashes. The England test side feels like it has been building and developing for the last couple of years, searching for the players, structure and identity that will lead to success and future return to the World number 1 spot; with the appointment of Chris Silverwood as head coach a key component of that plan.
The team seems to have transitioned into the style of side that both Root and Silverwood are striving for, but with a few positions still to be filled long term and some players still needing to gain top level experience. For us, this Ashes Down Under may come a year too soon, but we genuinely believe that England has the players to get to World Number 1 and regain the Ashes by the end of the next Ashes series in England.
There’s a long time and a lot of tests to go before the first Ashes test, and so it is hard to predict an XI but we predict we will start the first test with the following team:
Sibley
Burns
Crawley
Root
Stokes
Buttler
Pope
Bess
Archer
Broad
Wood
This team is very much what you would expect after this summer. It is a team that played throughout the summer (with some alterations) and did well with two series wins; but also gives England the option of two out and out quick seamers that they have been hoping for in recent years. The England management seem to think this is key, and they may well be right.
If we were to select the team currently, we would make one change, and that would be to bring Dan Lawrence in (who had a fantastic time in Australia on a Lions Tour recently.) To fit him in we would look to move Crawley up to open and drop Rory Burns; who would be very unlucky to miss out. Of course this would be a risk, as he is yet to play a test, but we think by the Ashes he may well have made a spot his own, and if so that will probably need to be at 3; although he is likely to start at his more natural 5 in Sri Lanka. In an ideal world, we would like to move Root and maybe also Stokes up the order so he could bat at 4 or 5 but we know it is very unlikely that will occur.
Our dark horse to get into the England side as a batsman for the Ashes is Jonny Bairstow but we would be both for and against that idea and need to see a lot from him in the subcontinent and this Summer for that to be a viable option.
Two other possible changes for us would be in the bowling department. After the summer we expect Bess to be the spin option, but we would consider the age-old favourite Jack Leach as a superior spinner; but that would lead to lengthening the tail if we are being honest. The other possible change would be to bring in Woakes or Anderson in instead of one of the fast bowlers, most probably Wood. This would most certainly come down to conditions and whether the match is traditional red ball or a day-night pink ball test; as well as the form and fitness of these bowlers.
We are confident that England can be competitive against an Australian team that are very good, but still not the perfect team. Hopefully England will win at least one test, and may well draw the series, but we are not expecting them to bring the urn home yet. Although, a few great series’ in the subcontinent and the summer (bringing key players into form and filling any gaps) could change our prediction.
If England can win the T20 World Cup and compete in the Ashes, avoiding a whitewash and possible even drawing the series, then it will have been a very successful year for England and we will be very happy. Let’s hope they match our prediction, or even out do it!
Let us know your thoughts and predictions, we’d love to know if you feel we’ve got it right or totally wrong.
BBL10 Update
The BBL is now passed the halfway mark in the group stages and the ladder has really taken shape.
The two Sydney sides are at the top, with the Sixers leading the way despite not fully firing yet and still missing Moises Henriques. The Thunder have shocked the UK bookies and look real contenders in second with a well-balanced team; partly thanks to the emergence of young stars Ollie Davies and Tanveer Sangha.
Hobart are in 3rd and have been buoyed by the arrival of Dawid Malan; they look good with bat and ball but may lack a little bit of star power when the knockouts arrive. The Strikers won today and returned to 4th place, and they look a good team. But there is a lot of reliance on Rashid Khan and their batting has been very hit and miss, so they could miss out if they’re not careful.
The Stars have dropped to 5th after getting off to a flier and have been hit by injury and availability issues; as well as Andre Fletcher not offering enough with the bat. They have Rauf and Dilbar returning soon though and plenty of home games ahead, meaning the should make the knockouts.
Just outside the knockout places is the Heat who have picked up, especially since the introduction of Denly and Gregory from England. They still have a good chance of qualifying and shouldn’t be ruled out but we think they will fall just short.
The Scorchers fill the 7th spot, but have only played 6 games, compared to 7 and 8 for the other teams. They now have their two main oversees available in Livingstone and Roy, plus the advantage of being at their home venue in their coming games. We think it will be between them and the Strikers for the 5th knockout spot.
Finally, at the bottom of the table is the Renegades. They were bottom last year and they are already cut adrift this season. The chances of them reaching the knockouts now seems very unlikely and bug changes may be needed before the next BBL season.
We’ve really enjoyed the BBL season so far and also being part of @cricket_badger’s daily podcasts, and look forward to the rest of the competition.
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Go well!
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